Mule Deer Need Habitat More Than Tag Cuts

Opinion. I'm HuntBank's founder and I've hunted northern Utah since I was a kid. Sources are at the bottom.

Mule deer are coming back, slowly. How we explain the decline decides where the next ten years of money and tags go, so I'll say what I think is driving it.

Where the herds stand

• Utah had about 325,000 deer in the December 2025 count, up from below 300,000 a few years earlier. The state's objective is just over 400,000.
• The 2022-23 winter hit hard. Heavy snow after severe drought cut Utah's herd by nearly 57,000, the biggest drop in about 15 years.
• Wyoming is uneven. Pinedale, Jackson and Green River are improving. Lander and Sheridan are struggling. Most herds are still below their objectives.
• Chronic wasting disease is rising in parts of Wyoming. One Laramie-region herd, Goshen Rim, is near 36 percent prevalence.

Why I'd put habitat first

Nobody controls winter. One hard one can erase a fawn crop, and Utah's big game coordinator says a real recovery takes several good moisture years in a row. So I'd put money into what we can control, which is what a deer has to eat when the weather turns.

Utah is doing that. The state spent more than $55 million on deer projects in 2025, finished over 130 habitat projects, and plans to improve vegetation on at least 600,000 acres of crucial range. I think that's the right call. Cutting tags doesn't give a deer more to eat.

I also think development on winter range is a driver that gets counted less carefully than tags do. I don't have a number for it, and I'd rather say that than make one up.

Predators

I support hunter-funded lion and bear harvest, broadly. In the part of northern Utah I hunt, I've seen lion and bear sign and kills myself, and I don't think that pressure should be waved off.

A University of Michigan study of Utah and Nevada, reported by the Salt Lake Tribune, cuts against me. It found that when drought shrinks deer herds, bears and cougars feel it too, and cougar reproduction may drop over time. Predators and deer rise and fall with the same weather. Harvest alone won't rebuild a herd that has nothing to eat. I want both, and I want results measured unit by unit. That's my opinion. I haven't dug into the predator removal studies yet.

Bears in town this year

Utah's bears are having a rough year and it's showing up in people's yards. DWR responded to 83 bear incidents in all of 2025. This year it was at 168 by Aug. 25 and 317 by Sept. 25. KSL reported that up to 70 bears have been euthanized. DWR says it euthanizes bears that act aggressively, show little fear of people, keep coming back to populated areas after being moved, cause major property damage, or have low odds of surviving. Utah doesn't have any certified rehabilitators set up to house bears.

DWR blames the food. A warm spring followed by hard freezes, plus drought, wiped out berries and other plants that make up most of a black bear's diet. DWR spokesperson Faith Jolley called it "the most difficult year we have faced as a state in regards to bear issues."

DWR doesn't publish a count of individual bears. The 317 is how many times they responded, so some of those could be the same bear. The closest thing to a headcount is that DWR says bear sightings in populated areas are higher than ever recorded in Utah.

I'm not going to use these numbers to argue for more harvest. These bears came to town because their food failed, and that doesn't show Utah has too many of them. It does back up the point above that predators feel the weather too.

Does and fawns

Most hunters watch bucks, meaning buck ratios, antler points and trophy units. The herd runs on does and fawns. Utah wildlife biologist Mike Wardle says does, not bucks, mainly drive growth or decline, and Utah's recent recovery came from better fawn survival while adult survival held steady.

So check fawn numbers before buck numbers when you read a hunt forecast. In Lander, Wyoming, several years of poor fawn recruitment removed at least three age classes, and the forecast expects mostly young bucks.

HuntBank's trophy score is about buck quality. It tells you what you might find, not whether the herd is growing.

Trophy or opportunity

I don't think one answer fits the West. Where fawn numbers are strong and buck ratios are high, manage for older bucks. Where herds are rebuilding, protect does and keep buck hunting modest. Wyoming already does this in places. Jackson kept a four-point antler restriction while Lander lifted its own this year.

What I'd do

1. Put habitat money first, and publish acres treated and results by unit.
2. Cut tags unit by unit where fawn numbers are poor, not statewide.
3. Fund more lion and bear harvest with hunter dollars where herds are stressed, and measure what it does.
4. Read fawn numbers before buck numbers.

The case against me

Weather overwhelms everything. Utah's Division of Wildlife Resources says recovery depends on the weather over the next five years, and the Tribune warns that a harsh winter after this summer's drought could hit fawns hard. If the herd slips again, that doesn't mean the habitat work failed.